Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 0.009876 0.011158 0.012545 0.014157 0.015979 0.017975 0.020329
2025-11-16 0.007868 0.009641 0.011720 0.014340 0.017555 0.021376 0.026270
2025-11-23 0.006618 0.008573 0.010995 0.014221 0.018410 0.023676 0.030815
2025-11-30 0.005918 0.008023 0.010753 0.014557 0.019732 0.026544 0.036223
2025-12-07 0.005107 0.007201 0.010024 0.014114 0.019907 0.027843 0.039585
2025-12-14 0.004531 0.006615 0.009526 0.013894 0.020307 0.029410 0.043382
2025-12-21 0.004004 0.006035 0.008962 0.013499 0.020380 0.030472 0.046485
2025-12-28 0.003789 0.005885 0.008994 0.013960 0.021728 0.033474 0.052703
2026-01-04 0.003554 0.005674 0.008909 0.014222 0.022775 0.036081 0.058514
2026-01-11 0.003362 0.005511 0.008876 0.014550 0.023934 0.038935 0.064935
2026-01-18 0.003101 0.005209 0.008593 0.014442 0.024367 0.040641 0.069594
2026-01-25 0.002883 0.004957 0.008366 0.014400 0.024890 0.042516 0.074668
2026-02-01 0.002637 0.004643 0.008015 0.014128 0.025018 0.043764 0.078828
2026-02-08 0.002491 0.004487 0.007922 0.014295 0.025923 0.046424 0.085727
2026-02-15 0.002314 0.004260 0.007683 0.014177 0.026299 0.048166 0.091087
2026-02-22 0.002222 0.004179 0.007695 0.014512 0.027524 0.051527 0.099740
2026-03-01 0.002028 0.003892 0.007309 0.014071 0.027253 0.052088 0.103074
2026-03-08 0.001883 0.003685 0.007053 0.013851 0.027381 0.053399 0.107959
2026-03-15 0.001729 0.003448 0.006721 0.013458 0.027131 0.053951 0.111359
2026-03-22 0.001690 0.003433 0.006818 0.013917 0.028617 0.058031 0.122301
2026-03-29 0.001630 0.003372 0.006817 0.014179 0.029717 0.061412 0.132062
2026-04-05 0.001580 0.003329 0.006847 0.014505 0.030975 0.065208 0.143025
2026-04-12 0.001490 0.003193 0.006679 0.014398 0.031302 0.067082 0.149954